Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Early GOP Intensity

Political pundits often point to the concept of voter intensity as a predictive variable heading up to elections.  I'm not knowledgeable enough in this area to know what the research on this topic suggests, but my guess is that you'd rather your voting constituency was more motivated to vote than your opponents, all things equal.  It's not surprising, given the current political climate in DC, that the results of a recent IBD/TIPP poll indicate Republican supporters are much more excited about the November mid-terms than are Dems:
If voter intensity is the key to who controls the Senate next year, Republicans appear to have a big edge, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Poll.
When asked to gauge their interest in the November midterms compared with prior elections, 59% of Republicans said it was higher, against just 41% of Democrats and 39% of independents.
So that's good news for the Repubs, but it is still early in the game, and Republicans are such inept politicians that my guess is they'll fumble away any electorial advantages they may have at the moment.